1)内蒙古大学生命科学学院,呼和浩特 010070;2)内蒙古大学省部共建草原家畜生殖调控与繁育国家重点实验室,呼和浩特 010070;3)内蒙古大学物理科学与技术学院,呼和浩特 010021
国家自然科学基金(62061034,62171241,61861036)和内蒙古自治区关键技术攻关计划(2021GG0398)资助项目。
1)College of Life Sciences, Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot 010070, China;2)State key Laboratory of Reproductive Regulation and Breeding of Grassland Livestock, Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot 010070, China;3)School of Physical Science and Technology, Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot 010021, China
This work was supported by grants from The National Natural Science Foundation of China (62061034, 62171241, 61861036) and the Key Technology Research Program of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (2021GG0398).
目的 新型冠状病毒(SARS-CoV-2)变体往往具有更强的感染力与免疫逃逸能力,目前出现的SARS-CoV-2变体种类繁多,疫情评估与防控形势严峻。本文希望通过建立模拟病毒传染的理论模型,对SARS-CoV-2及其变体引起的疫情进行追踪与预测,并对它们的综合传染性进行评估。方法 根据方格传染病模型,对传染持续时间和群体免疫作用的相互关系进行推导,并在此基础上建立了新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情感染传播的普遍理论模型,提出感染力参数A和免疫作用参数B,将传染时间与感染人数的复杂关系公式化,用于预测感染日变曲线。还引入了突变株综合传染性参数
Objective Many mutant strains of SARS-CoV-2 have stronger infectivity and immune escape ability. The situation of epidemic evaluation, prevention and control is serious. The aim of the present paper is to track and predict the infectious transmission of COVID-19 through a theoretical model.Methods Based on the grid epidemic model, this paper discussed the relationship between the duration of infection and the effect of group immunity, and on this basis, established the theoretical model of infection transmission of COVID-19. The infectivity parameter A and the immune effect parameter B are introduced to predict the daily variation curve of infection. The parameter
刘程芳,梁雨朝,周健,左永春,罗辽复.基于感染力与免疫作用的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情传播模型[J].生物化学与生物物理进展,2022,49(10):1874-1888
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